Rent growth is slowing nationally, but some states are seeing sharp increases or rapid declines outside of the national trend. Here’s what Rentec Direct’s 2026 State of Rent report shows about how much rent is going up, and how I’m using it to plan rent increases on my own rentals in Oregon.
Average rent paid in the U.S. went up 5% in 2025. So far in 2026, it’s up 1%.
That’s the headline from the State of Rent 2026 report. This is Rentec Direct’s annual rent price trends report, and here’s why the data is more significant than other rental industry reports. It tracks what tenants actually pay each month, using rent payment data from more than 600,000 rental properties on the Rentec Direct platform. Most rent reports track asking rents on vacant listings.
If you’ve owned rental properties, you know the asking rent on a marketing page can be a very different number compared to what is actually collected each month. The State of Rent 2026 report gives you an accurate look at what you actually charged in rent each year, comparing the monthly averages by state across the years.
What the Report Found
The national average rent paid hit $1,388 in 2026 year-to-date data. That’s $375 a month more than in 2019, a 38% jump. So even with growth cooling, tenants are paying more on average than they did a few years ago.
Where you own matters more than that average. In 2025, renters in California paid an average of $2,399 a month. In West Virginia, they paid $773. From 2024 to 2025, rent went up in 41 states and down in 9, and 24 states grew faster than the national rate of 5%.
The gap between paid rent and asking rent is worth a second look. Zillow put the typical U.S. asking rent at $1,962 in July 2026, according to our August 2026 Industry Outlook. The two numbers come from different methods, so I wouldn’t subtract one from the other. Still, the report’s methodology explains part of the difference: advertised rents don’t reflect existing lease rates, rent control, discounts, or negotiated prices.
A lot of tenants are on leases that haven’t caught up to what a new listing would bring. I own some of those units myself. I have firsthand experience knowing that my average collected rent on some units is well below what is getting advertised as the average rent in Oregon.
The Part I Find Most Interesting
The states that ran hottest in 2025 are some of the ones cooling fastest now. Montana went from 11% rent growth in 2025 to a 12% decline in 2026 year-to-date data. A few states that dropped in 2025 are bouncing back, and a couple are speeding up.
| State | 2025 rent growth | 2026 YTD trend |
|---|---|---|
| Montana | ▲ 11% | ▼ 12% |
| New Jersey | ▲ 16% | ▼ 9% |
| New York | ▲ 15% | ▼ 8% |
| California | ▲ 14% | ▼ 3% |
| Vermont | ▼ 4% | ▲ 13% |
| North Dakota | ▼ 7% | ▲ 10% |
| New Mexico | ▼ 10% | ▲ 9% |
| Connecticut | ▲ 24% | ▲ 12% |
| Hawaii | ▲ 3% | ▲ 28% |
| Idaho | ▲ 3% | ▲ 14% |
Source: Rentec Direct, State of Rent 2026
One caution before you read too much into those swings. The 2026 numbers cover part of a year, so I’d treat them as an early signal. A partial year doesn’t make a trend.
Nathan Miller, Rentec Direct’s CEO, explains this well in the report: “there is no longer a single national rental market.” If you priced your rental off a national headline in 2025, you could have been way too low in Connecticut or way too high in New Mexico.
How This Plays Out in Oregon
This section covers rent caps, so a quick note: it’s a reference and doesn’t count as legal advice. Talk with a landlord-tenant attorney in your state before you change your rent.
Oregon has a statewide rent cap. Each year, the Oregon Department of Administrative Services publishes the maximum increase, calculated as 7% plus inflation. The cap was 9.5% for 2026, and DAS has set it at 10% for 2027. It applies to buildings older than 15 years, and you can raise rent only once in a 12-month period, according to OPB’s coverage of the 2026 numbers.
Now compare that cap with what Oregon tenants are actually paying. Our 2025 State of Rent report put Oregon’s average rent paid at $1,241 in 2024. Rentec Direct’s rent payment data shows it reached $1,330 in 2025. That’s an $89 increase, about 7.2%, well ahead of the national 5%. So far in 2026, Oregon’s average is $1,331.
One dollar more than last year.
The law allowed up to 9.5% this year, and the average Oregon rent barely moved. For most rentals, the market is the real limit on how much rent goes up. The cap matters most for units that are already below market.
Regulation shapes supply here too. The 2025 report also pointed to Oregon as an example of a state where tight landlord-tenant rules make profitability harder, pushing some landlords out of the market and limiting the supply of rentals. In my opinion, that’s accurate.
I am one of those landlords with a couple properties that sit well below market rent, and my state’s rent cap laws make it a very slow process to bring them to market rate. We raise the rent to the max allowed each year to bring them up. We don’t do that on every property, only the ones that have fallen behind.
Here’s what that looks like on one of ours. We have a two-bedroom, two-bath unit renting for $1,070 a month. A similar unit in the same development just listed for $1,600. That’s a $530 gap, or $6,360 a year. (And that $1,600 is an asking rent, which is exactly the paid-versus-advertised gap the report talks about.)
Even raising it to the max, closing that gap takes patience. A 10% increase at the 2027 cap gets it to $1,177. If the cap stays around that level, it takes about five years of maximum increases to pass $1,600, and that’s assuming market rent doesn’t move at all in the meantime.
That’s why I don’t skip increases on the units that have fallen behind. Every year I wait adds another year to the catch-up.
My Advice for Landlords Right Now
Slower growth changes the math on rent increases. These are the habits I’d lean on.
Raise the rent a little every year. I always advise an annual increase, even a small one, so your rentals don’t fall too far behind market, like mine did. Skip a few years, and you’ll face a big catch-up increase that’s hard on your tenant. In a capped state like Oregon, you may not even be allowed to catch up all at once.
Learn more: Should I Raise the Rent on Good Tenants at Renewal?
Price from local comps. The report’s own takeaway is that local data matters more than national averages. A 1% national number tells you almost nothing about what your two-bedroom should rent for.
Reward good tenants once, and leave the rent alone. If you want to thank a great tenant at renewal, a one-time discount usually beats a rent cut. Cutting rent by $200 a month costs you $2,400 over a year. A one-time $500 renewal bonus costs you $500, and the lease stays at market rent for future increases.
Learn more: Lease Renewals: Rent Reduction or One-Time Rent Discount
Keep the tenants you have. In a flatter market, you can’t count on big increases to cover a vacancy. The report says tenant retention becomes more valuable as the market normalizes. A good tenant on time every month is worth more than dealing with a vacancy in a competitive rental market.
If You’re Thinking About Investing
If you’re running numbers on your first or next rental, this report is a good reminder to be conservative.
Don’t underwrite last year’s growth. A pro forma that assumed Montana’s 11% kept going would look pretty different against a 12% drop. Plan on modest increases unless your local data says otherwise.
Underwrite the rent you can legally charge. If you buy a property with tenants already in place, check whether a rent cap limits how fast you can bring them to market. That’s happened to me. We’ve bought renter-occupied properties where long-term tenants were below market rent, and the state cap set the pace for catching up. Run the math with the increases you’re allowed to make, like my five-year example above, and see if the deal still works.
Look at your market, then your street. Idaho is still climbing while Montana, right next door, cools off. National and even statewide numbers are a starting point. Your comps and your local vacancy rate tell you what your rental will actually earn.
Where to Go From Here
Start by looking up your state. The full State of Rent 2026 report has the national charts, the biggest risers and decliners, and a free PDF you can download. Then pull a few local comps and decide what your next renewal increase should be before the lease is up, so you’re not guessing the week it expires.
Is rent in your market still climbing, or are you starting to see it cool off? Tell me in the comments.
